A Relação entre Extremismo Político, Ilusão de Conhecimento e Crenças Conspiratórias e seus Impactos nos Eleitores de Três Municípios do Rio Grande do Sul

George dos Reis Alba, Andriele Nahara Muller, Cleiton Arnhold, Alexandre Kieling, Gilmar D'Agostini Oliveira Casalinho


As pessoas tipicamente sabem menos sobre política do que pensam. Quando se trata de extremistas, essa autoilusão é ainda maior. Além disso, os extremistas são mais suscetíveis a crenças de que diversos problemas socioeconômicos têm origem em conspirações, dificultando a implementação de estratégias formais de marketing eleitoral e de governo. Uma survey com amostra probabilística de 380 eleitores contendo questões que mensuraram o nível de extremismo e conhecimento sobre determinadas políticas públicas e a crença em teorias conspiratórias foi aplicada em três cidades gaúchas. Encontrou-se uma relação positiva entre posições mais extremas e o nível autodeclarado de conhecimento sobre diversos temas, além de uma associação positiva entre extremismo e crenças conspiratórias. Uma vez que os extremistas são mais convictos de seus conhecimentos, é possível que as pessoas com opiniões equilibradas sejam, constantemente, influenciadas pelas decisões tomadas por aquele grupo, muitas vezes lastradas por crenças improváveis.


Extremismo Político; Crenças Conspiratórias; Ilusão de Conhecimento

Texto completo:



Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2015). Phishing for phools: The economics of manipulation and deception. Princeton, NJ, US: Princeton University Press.

Bird, S. T., & Bogart, L. M. (2003). Conspiracy beliefs about HIV/AIDS and birth control among African Americans: Implications for the prevention of HIV, other STIs, and unintended pregnancy. Journal of Social Issues, 61, 109–126.

Canetti, Daphna, & Miriam Lindner. (2015). Exposure to Political Violence and Political Behavior, Psychology of Change: Life Contexts, Experiences, and Identities, ed. Katherine Reynolds and Nyla Branscombe. New York: Psychology Press, 77–95.

Canetti-Nisim, Daphna, Eran Halperin, Keren Sharvit, & Stevan E Hobfoll. (2009). A new stress-based model of political extremism personal exposure to terrorism, psychological distress, and exclusionist political attitudes. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53 (3), 363–389.

Dagnall N., Drinkwater K., Parker A., Denovan A., & Porton M. (2015). “Conspiracy theory and cognitive style: a worldview”. Frontiers in Psychology.

Douglas, K. M., & Sutton, R. M. (2011). Does it take one to know one? Endorsement of conspiracy theories is influenced by personal willingness to conspire. British Journal of Social Psychology, 50, 542-552.

Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65, (2), 135-50.

Dropp, K. A., Kertzer, J. D., & Zeitzoff, T. (2014). The Less Americans Know about Ukraine’s Location, the More They Want U.S. to Intervene. Washington Post.

Fernbach, P. M., Rogers, T., Fox, C. R., & Sloman, S. A. (2013). Political extremism is supported by an illusion of understanding. Psychological Science, 24, 939–946.

Gosling, S. D., Rentfrow, P. J., & Swann, W. B., Jr. (2003). A Very Brief Measure of the Big Five Personality Domains. Journal of Research in Personality, 37, 504-528.

Greenberg, J., & Jonas, E. (2003). Psychological motives and political orientation—The left, the right, and the rigid: Comment on Jost. Psychological Bulletin, 129, 376-382.

Grosjean, Pauline. (2014). Conflict and social and political preferences: Evidence from World War II and civil conflict in 35 European countries. Comparative Economic Studies, 56(3), 424–451.

Hall, C. C., Ariss, L., & Todorov, A. (2007). The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 103(2), 277-290.

Hardin,R. (2002). The crippled epistemology of extremism. In A. Breton, G. Galeotti, P. Salmon, & R. Wintrobe (Eds.), Political extremism and rationality, 3-22.

Heath, C., & Tversky, A. (1991). Preference and belief: ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 4(1), 5-28.

Hofstadter, R. (1966). The paranoid style in American politics. In R. Hofstadter (Ed.), The paranoid style in American politics and other essays. New York, NY: Knopf.

Ivereigh, A. (2006). The Da Vinci Code. Retrieved on November 2, 2010. Available from http://www.rcdow.org.uk/davincicode/

Kardon, B. E. (1992). Consumer schizophrenia: Extremism in the marketplace, Planning Review, 20(4), 18-22.

Kline, P. (2000). Handbook of Psychological Testing. London: Routledge.

McHoskey, J. W. (1995). Case closed? On the John F. Kennedy assassination: Biased assimilation of evidence and attitude polarization. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 17, 395-409.

Miguel, E., Saiegh, S. M., & Satyanath, S. (2011). Civil War Exposure and Violence. Economics & Politics, 23(1), 59–73. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.2010.00372.x

Newheiser, A., Farias, M., & Tausch, N. 2011. The Functional Nature of Conspiracy Beliefs. Personality and Individual Differences, 51(8), 1007-11.

Robins, R. S., & Post, J. M. (1997). Political paranoia: The psychopolitics of hatred. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Rozenblit, L., & Keil, F. C. (2002). The misunderstood limits of folk science: An illusion of explanatory depth. Cognitive Science, 26, 521–562.

Schickel, R. (2005). Clint Eastwood on “Baby.” TimeMagazine. Retrieved from http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1029865,00.html

Schkade, D., Sunstein, C. R., & Hastie, R. (2010). When deliberation produces extremism. Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society, 22, 227–252.

Sharp, D. (2008). Advances in conspiracy theory. The Lancet, 372(9647), 1371–1372.

Shermer, M. (1997). Why people believe weird things: Pseudoscience, superstition, and other confusions of our time. New York: Freeman.

Sloman, S., & Fernbach, P. (2017). The Knowledge Illusion. New York: Riverhead Books.

Soni, D. (2007). Survey: ‘Government Hasn’t Told Truth about 7/7’. Channel 4 News. Available at: http://www.channel4.com

Sutton, R. M., & Douglas, K. M. (2014). Examining the monological nature of conspiracy theories in Power, Politics, and Paranoia, eds J. W. van Prooijen, and P. A. M. van Lange. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 254–272. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139565417.018

Tetlock, P. E., Armor, D., Peterson, R. S. (1994). The slavery debate in antebellum America: Cognitive style, value conflict, and the limits of compromise. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 115-126.

Thorburn, S., & Bogart, L. M. (2005). Conspiracy beliefs about birth control: Barriers to pregnancy prevention among African Americans of reproductive age. Health Education and Behavior, 32, 474-487.

Toner, K., Leary, M., Asher, M. W., & Jongman-Sereno, K. P. (2013). Feeling superior is a bipartisan issue: Extremity (not direction) of political views predicts perceived belief superiority. Psychological Science, 24, 2454–2462.

Uscinski, J. E., Parent, J. M., & Torres, B. (2011). Conspiracy theories are for losers, in Paper Presented at the 2011 American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Seattle, WA

Van, J-W. P., Krouwel, A. P. M., & Pollet, T. V. (2015). Political Extremism Predicts Belief in Conspiracy Theories, Social Psychological and Personality Science, 6(5), 570-578.

Wood, S. A., & Hampson, S. E. (2005). Measuring the Big Five with single items using a bipolar response scale. European Journal of Personality, 19, 373-390.

Zonis, M., & Joseph, C. G. (1994). Conspiracy thinking in the Middle East. Political Psychology, 15, 443-459.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18256/2237-7956.2018.v8i2.2534


  • Não há apontamentos.

Revista de Administração IMED (RAIMED)               ISSN: 2237-7956                Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração (PPGA/IMED)

Faculdade Meridional – IMED – www.imed.edu.br – Rua Senador Pinheiro, 304 – Bairro Rodrigues – 99070-220 – Passo Fundo – RS – Brasil Tel.: +55 54 3045 6100

 Licença Creative Commons
Este obra está licenciado com uma Licença Creative Commons Atribuição-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 Internacional.